This is part two of the Big12 conference preview. In part one we looked at the teams that could finish toward the bottom of the conference, if you haven't checked that out yet I would recommend doing so. In part two we will get to the powerhouse teams in the conference and see how the top of the conference could look like in 2023.
Texas Tech
Texas Tech finished the 2022 season on a four-game win streak that ended in a bowl win over Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl. Last season, the Red Raiders offense ranked second in the Big12 putting up 461.4 yards and 34.2 points per game. They brought in center Rusty Staats (from WKU) to help beef up their offensive line. On defense, Texas Tech returns six starters and more experienced players along with them. Their win total is currently set at 7.5, which seems pretty fair for this Red Raiders team.
They open the season against Wyoming, Oregon, Tarleton State and West Virginia. Texas Tech should be able to start the season 3-1 with their only loss coming against Oregon. They then play Houston, Baylor, Kansas State and BYU. I have the Red Raiders going 2-2 in this stretch picking up wins against Houston and Kansas State. They then finish their season against TCU, Kansas, UCF and Texas. Again, I have Texas Tech going 2-2 in this stretch losing to TCU and Texas which would give them a final record of 7-5 while going 5-4 in conference play.
Oklahoma State
In 2022, Oklahoma State finished 7-5 overall and 4-5 in conference play. The Cowboys lost their bowl game to Wisconsin by a score of 24-17. Their offense will have to rely on transfer QB Alan Bowman (from Michigan) after Spencer Sanders transferred to Ole Miss. They also added two wide receivers through the portal in De'Zhaun Stribling (from Washington State) and Arland Bruce IV (from Iowa). On defense they added LB Justin Wright and DE Anthony Goodlow, both from Tulsa.
Oklahoma State's win total is set at 6.5 wins. They start their season against Central Arkansas, Arizona State, South Alabama and Iowa State. This should be an easy start for the Cowboys, I do, however, have them losing one game to Arizona State to start 3-1. They then play Kansas State, Kansas, West Virginia and Cincinnati. I have Oklahoma State going 3-1 through this four-game stretch as well. They then finish their season against Oklahoma, UCF, Houston, and BYU. I think the cowboys will lose these first two games here before winning their last two to finish 7-5 and 5-4 in conference play.
Baylor
Baylor is coming off a mediocre 2022 season that resulted in a bowl loss to Air Force by a score of 30-15 that put their overall record at 6-7 with a 4-5 conference record. Baylor was able to bring in two offensive linemen through the portal, brothers Clark and Campbell Barrington. They also brought in WR Ketron Jackson Jr. (from Arkansas) and RB Dominic Richardson (from Oklahoma State). They also in QB Sawyer Robertson (from Mississippi State) who will battle it out with Blake Shapen for the starting job. On defense they brought in Isaiah Dunson, a cornerback transfer from Miami.
The Bears win total for 2023 is set at 7.5 wins. Baylor opens their season against Texas State, Utah, Long Island and Texas. They are likely to only come out of this stretch with two wins against Texas State and Long Island to start the season 2-2. They then play UCF, Texas Tech, Cincinnati and Iowa State. This is a much easier stretch of games, and the Bears should win all four here to get to 6-2 on the season. Baylor wraps up the season against Houston, Kansas State, TCU and West Virginia. I have the Bears finishing their season the same way they started by going 2-2 in this stretch with losses to Kansas State and TCU to finish the season 8-4 while going 6-3 in conference play.
TCU
The Horned Frogs was one of the best stories to come out of the 2022 season. A team that no one could have predicted to go undefeated and while they lost to Kansas State in the conference championship, the committee was still impressed with this team put them in the playoffs. In the playoffs, TCU knocked off Michigan to advance to the national championship where they lost to Georgia in a blowout with a final score of 65-7.
TCU was able to land a running back transfer from Alabama in Trey Sanders. They also added Sander's teammate from Alabama in wide receiver JoJo Earle. At tight end they brought in transfers JP Richardson (from Oklahoma State), Jack Bech (from LSU) and Dylan Wright (from Minnesota). The win total for Suny Dykes team is set at 7.5, pretty low for a team coming off an undefeated season. The question is, can TCU prove everyone that said 2022 was a fluke season wrong?
They open the season against Colorado, Nicholls, Houston and SMU. This should be a relatively easy start and I expect the Horned Frogs to be 4-0 after this stretch. They then play Iowa State, BYU, Kansas State and Texas Tech. This is also a relatively easy slate of games for TCU and I have them going 3-1 here with their one loss coming against Kansas State which would put them at 7-1 on the season. The Horned Frogs finish their season against Texas Tech, Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma. I have TCU losing two games here to Texas and Oklahoma which would put them at 9-3 overall while going 6-3 in conference play. Not quite what last season was, but definitely a respectable season for TCU.
Oklahoma
Oklahoma is coming off a disappointing 2022 season that resulted in a 6-6 record and a loss to Florida State in the Cheez-It Bowl. While their 2022 season was a bit shocking, it wasn't all that surprising. It was expected to Sooners would take a step back after losing Lincoln Riley, Caleb Williams and most of their staff, who all went to USC. Now, looking at 2023, many people believe Oklahoma can have a bounce back year and get back to where they were when Lincoln Riley was still coaching.
On offense, the Sooners brought in wide receiver transfers Brenan Thompson (from Texas) and Andrel Anthony (from Michigan). This gives Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma's QB, some needed help at the receiver position. Oklahoma has a lot of returning players on defense, which was not all that good in 2022 as it finished ranked 122nd in the nation. They did bring in linebacker through the portal, Dasan McCullough (from Indiana).
Oklahoma's win total is set high at 9.5 wins. They open their season against Arkansas State, SMU, Tulsa and Cincinnati. None of these teams should really give Oklahoma any problems as the Sooner should be on their way to a 4-0 start. They then play Iowa State, Texas, UCF and Kansas. The only game I can see Oklahoma losing here is against Texas which would put the Sooners at 5-1. They finish their season against Oklahoma State, West Virginia, BYU and TCU. Again, I only have Oklahoma losing one game here to Oklahoma State in what might be the last Battle of Bedlam. But I do think Oklahoma will have a bounce back season and finish 10-2 while going 7-2 in conference play.
Kansas State
The Wildcats are coming off a good 2022 season that resulted in a conference championship win against TCU. They then lost to Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. The defending Big12 champions are looking to get back to the conference championship and prove that they are still the team to beat in the conference.
Will Howard, Kansas State's 6-5 242 pound QB, returns to the offense after he having a great 2022 season. He threw for 1,633 yards and 15 touchdowns in just seven games. DJ Giddens will have big shoes to fill, stepping in for Duce Vaughn who had a sensational season totaling 1,936 yards from scrimmage. The Wildcats also brought in running back transfer Trshaun Ward from Florida State. Kansas State also returns their entire offensive line for the 2023 season. The team also landed a wide receiver transfer from Iowa in Keagan Johnson. On defense, they will look to replace their star pass rusher from a year ago, Felix Anudike-Uzomah who got drafted in April. They added safety help in north Dakota State transfer, Marques Sigle.
Kansas State's win total is set at 7.5 wins. They open their season against SE Missouri, Troy, Missouri and UCF. I don't think any of these teams pose as a threat to the Wildcats, and I have them starting their season undefeated at 4-0. They then play Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU and Houston. The only game I have Kansas State losing here is on the road against Texas Tech, which will put them at 5-1. They finish their season against Texas, Baylor, Kansas and Iowa State. Again, I only have one loss here for the Wildcats coming against Texas, who they play on the road in Austin. I see the Wildcats slightly improving from last season and finishing the season with a 10-2 record while going 6-2 in conference play.
Texas
Ah yes, Texas, the team that in every offseason is "back." But, could the Longhorns actually be "back" in 2023. In 2022, Texas finished the season 8-4 and lost to Washington in the Alamo Bowl. But all their losses were relatively close, they lost to Alabama by only one point, lost to Texas Tech by a field goal in overtime, lost to Oklahoma State on the road by a touchdown, lost to TCU (who went undefeated) by a touchdown, and in their bowl game, Texas lost to Washington by only a touchdown. In fact, in 2022 the Longhorns point differential was +167, which compared to TCU who went to the playoffs, only had a point differential of +46.8. Texas really wasn't that far behind in 2022, and if a couple of plays went their way they could have been in playoff talks last season.
Texas will be led again by QB Quinn Ewers, who has nine returning starters to help him on the offensive side of the ball. They will have to replace Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson at the running back position, but they have a handful of players that could step into that role and have an impact on this offense. The Longhorns also bring in a wide receiver transfer from Georgia, Adonai Mitchell, while returning their top two receivers in Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington. They return a lot of their starters on defense and also brought in a safety from Arkansas, Jalen Catalon, and a cornerback from Wake Forest, Gavin Holmes.
Texas's win total is set at 9.5 wins for the 2023 season. They open up against Rice, Alabama, Wyoming and Baylor. They only loss for Texas here should be against Alabama, but they could beat them if they play well. However, I have them losing and starting their season 3-1. They then play Kansas, Oklahoma, Houston and BYU. The only challenge here comes against Oklahoma, who I think they can beat and get to 7-1 on the season. They wrap up the 2023 season against Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State and Texas Tech. Kansas State and TCU could give the Longhorns some problems. But ultimately, I have Texas taking down the Wildcats and the Horned Frogs on their way to an 11-1 finish while going a prefect 9-0 in conference play.
Big12 standings:
Texas 11-1 (9-0)
Kansas State 10-2 (7-2)
Oklahoma 10-2 (7-2)
TCU 9-3 (6-3)
Baylor 8-4 (6-3)
Oklahoma State 7-5 (5-4)
Texas Tech 7-5 (5-4)
Kansas 6-6 (4-5)
UCF 6-6 (3-6)
BYU 5-7 (2-7)
Houston 5-7 (2-7)
Iowa State 4-8 (2-7)
Cincinnati 4-8 (2-7)
West Virginia 2-10 (1-8)
Big12 Championship Game:
Texas vs Kansas State