The next conference to take a look at in our conference preview series is the Big12 Conference. The Big12 has a new look this season. They have added Cincinatti, UCF, BYU and Houston this offseason in the response to the news of Texas and Oklahoma leaving the conference for the SEC in 2024. The Big12 will add more teams, from the Pac12 in 2024, but were not focusing on that right now. We're looking at the 2023 season.
West Virginia
The first team we will take a look at is the West Virginia Mountaineers. In 2022, West Virginia finished as the second worst team in the conference with a conference record of 3-6 and 5-7 overall. It is still unclear who will start at quarterback for the Mountaineers heading into the season and there are a lot of holes on both sides of the ball that could be a problem for West Virginia this season.
The Mountaineers win total is currently set at 5.5 wins. But does the team have enough weapons to get to that mark? West Virginia starts their season against Penn State, Duquesne, Pitt and Texas Tech. It's hard to see them escaping this stretch with more than one win. I think a 1-3 start is the most realistic outcome with a win against Duquesne. They then play TCU, Houston, Oklahoma State and UCF. This is a tough stretch for West Virginia, and I don't see them coming away with a win as they fall to 1-7 on the season. They finish their season against BYU, Oklahoma, Cincinatti and Baylor. The only game that looks like a guaranteed win here for the Mountaineers is against BYU and it looks like a 2-10 record is a very possible outcome for this team.
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is one of the new teams in conference this year and while they have had success in the American Conference, the Big12 is a lot more physical and there is a lot more talent spread throughout the conference. The Bearcats enter the season with a new coaching staff and a new quarterback in Arizona State transfer Emory Jones. They also brought in some wide receiver and offensive line help through the transfer portal. On defensive side of the ball, they brought in linebacker transfers Daniel Grzesiak (from Utah State) and Dorian Jones (from Louisville). They also brought in CB Jordan Young (from Florida) and S D.J. Taylor (from Arizona State).
Cincinnati's win total is currently set at 5.5 wins. But can the Bearcats reach that win total in a new conference? They open the season against Eastern Kentucky, Pitt, Miami of Ohio and Oklahoma. A tough stretch to start the season that should result in a 2-2 start for the Bearcats. They then play BYU, Iowa State, Baylor and Oklahoma State. Another slate of games for Cincinnati and it is very hard to find a win in there and I think they will to 2-6 on the season. Cincinnati finishes their season against UCF, Houston, West Virginia and Kansas. Almost all of these games in this stretch are toss-ups and I think Cincinnati will get two wins here against UCF and West Virginia to finish 4-8 on the season.
Houston
Another newcomer to the Big12, Houston hopes to have immediate success in the new conference. The Cougars went 7-5 last season and won their bowl game against Louisiana. However, they lost two big offensive playmakers in QB Clayton Tune and WR Nate "Tank" Dell to the NFL draft. Houston brought in some wide receivers help from the transfer portal in Joshua Cobbs (from Wyoming) and Stephon Johnson (from Oklahoma State). On the defensive side of the ball, they brought in two transfer cornerbacks, Isaiah Hamilton (from Texas Southern) and Brian George (from Texas A&M).
Houston's win total is currently set at 4.5 wins. The Cougars open their season against UTSA, Rice, TCU and Sam Houston. The biggest challenge here for Houston is TCU, other than that I see the Cougars coming out of this stretch with a 3-1 record. They then play Texas Tech, West Virginia, Texas and Kansas State. It's hard to find a guaranteed win here, but I think they'll get one win against West Virginia to get them to 4-4 on the season. They then finish their season against Baylor, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State and UCF. Again, I only see one win here for Houston against Cincinnati to get to a final record of 5-7, falling one game short of a bowl appearance.
BYU
BYU is coming off a solid season after going 7-5 and beating SMU in the New Mexico Bowl. Now, they look to make a splash in their first in the Big12 and they are leaning on QB transfer Kedon Slovis (from Pitt) to do so. Slovis has been around, starting his college career at USC and then transferring to Pitt. He has yet to live up the hype that once surrounded him coming out of high school. Is this finally the year he breaks out?
The Cougars win total is set low at 4.5 but can they get more than that in their first year in the Big12? They open their season against Sam Houston, Southern Utah, Arkansas and Kansas. They should be able to win those first two games pretty handily, however, the next two games are very difficult, and the Cougars will most likely find themselves at 2-2 to start the season. They then play Cincinnati, TCU, Texas Tech and Texas. I only see them winning one game here against Cincinnati to bring them to 3-5 on the season. BYU finishes their season against West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Again, I only see one winnable game, against Iowa State in this stretch to finish the season 5-7.
Iowa State
The Cyclones are coming a disappointing 2022 campaign that ended in a 4-8 record, their first sub .500 season since 2016. Iowa State only got one conference win last season against the second to worst team in the conference, West Virginia. The Cyclones lost two stars to the NFL draft in WR Xavier Hutchinson and edge rusher Will McDonald. Iowa State will look to have a bounce back season and claw their way back up from being the worst team in the conference a season ago. There is also plenty of uncertainty around with team as they deal with an investigation into multiple players betting on games last season.
The teams win total for the 2023 season is set at 4.5 wins. The cyclones open their season against Northern Iowa, Iowa, Ohio and Oklahoma State. With this start, I actually think Iowa State will only lose one of these games against their rival Iowa to start the season 3-1. They then play Oklahoma, TCU, Cincinnati and Baylor. This is a tougher stretch and I only see one possible win here against Cincinnati as Iowa State will fall to 4-4 on the season. The Cyclones finish their season against Kansas, BYU, Texas and Kansas State. Iowa State may struggle to get a win here and could easily finish the season on an 0-4 stretch to finish with a 4-8 record and only winning two conference games.
UCF
One of the more exciting newcomers to the conference, the Knights look to continue their recent success, this time in a new conference. UCF finished 2022 with a 9-3 record and making their conference championship. In the American Conference championship, the Knights fell to the Tulane Green Wave with a score of 45-28. They then lost to Duke in the Military Bowl by a score of 30-13. It will definitely be hard for UCF to repeat a season like they had in 2022 now that they're in the Big12.
Luckily for UCF they have a coach who is familiar with big conference games in Gus Malzahn. Malzahn was able to beef up the offensive line in the transfer portal, which will be pivotal in having success in the Big12. They also brought in two safeties from portal, Jireh Wilson (from East Carolina) and DeJordan Mask (from Texas Tech).
The Knights win total is currently sitting at 6.5 wins. They open their season against Kent State, Boise State, Villanova and Kansas State. The only loss here should be against Kansas State and UCF should be able to start the season with a 3-1 record. They then play Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma and West Virginia. I only see UCF coming out of this four-game stretch with one win against West Virginia as they drop three games to get to a 4-4 record. The Knights finish their season against Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Houston. I see UCF going 2-2 in these games with wins against Oklahoma State and Houston to finish the season 6-6.
Kansas
Kansas is the last team we will look at in part one of this Big12 conference preview. The Jayhawks are coming off a good season that surprised many people. Kansas got off to a 5-0 start last season before going 1-6 to finish their season and losing their bowl game to Arkansas in a thrilling 55-53 loss in the three overtimes. Jalon Daniels, Kansas's QB, suffered a grade three right shoulder separation against TCU. This, in large part, is why we saw a quick fall in Kansas's season.
Luckily for Daniels and Kansas, they return all their receivers and tight ends while also bringing back Devin Neal who rushed for 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns last season. The Jayhawks also return four starting linemen. They were also able to bring in a handful of players on the defensive side of the ball to strengthen their linebacker room, secondary and their defensive line.
Can all of this be enough to the Jayhawks back to where they were before Daniels suffered that shoulder injury? Their win total is currently sitting at 6.5 wins. They open the season against Missouri State, Illinois, Nevada and BYU. The only possible loss I see here is against Illinois. Kansas should be able to start 3-1 after this stretch of games. They then play Texas, UCF, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. This is a tougher slate of games for the Jayhawks, and I only see them coming away with one win to fall to 4-4. Kansas finishes the season against Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas State and Cincinnati. The Jayhawks could lose two games in this stretch to Texas Tech and Kansas State, and I think this is a very likely outcome for the Jayhawks and they'll finish the season 6-6 with a 4-5 conference record.
Current Big12 Standings:
Kansas 6-6 (4-5)
UCF 6-6 (3-6)
BYU 5-7 (2-7)
Houston 5-7 (2-7)
Iowa State 4-8 (2-7)
Cincinnati 4-8 (2-7)
West Virginia 2-10 (1-8)